Financial Polis

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Il prossimo mese la Grecia esce dall’Euro e in Spagna e Italia, le banche bloccheranno il prelievo dai conti correnti. E’ l’ipotesi che scrive sul  New York Times del 13 maggio 2012 Paul Krugman: non un giornalista qualsiasi, ma il premio nobel per l’economia nel 2008.
Some of us have been talking it over, and here’s what we think the end game looks like:
1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.
2. Huge withdrawals from Spanish and Italian banks, as depositors try to move their money to Germany.
3a. Maybe, just possibly, de facto controls, with banks forbidden to transfer deposits out of country and limits on cash withdrawals.
3b. Alternatively, or maybe in tandem, huge draws on ECB credit to keep the banks from collapsing.
4a. Germany has a choice. Accept huge indirect public claims on Italy and Spain, plus a drastic revision of strategy — basically, to give Spain in particular any hope you need both guarantees on its debt to hold borrowing costs down and a higher eurozone inflation target to make relative price adjustment possible; or:
4b. End of the euro.
And we’re talking about months, not years, for this to play out.
Questo il link dell’intervento di Krugman nel settore opinioni:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/13/eurodammerung-2/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto